In an unexpected twist, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s prospects of reclaiming the presidency surged to unprecedented heights on Polymarket following a shooting incident at a rally in Pennsylvania. According to Polymarket traders, the odds dramatically spiked after Trump was reportedly wounded during the event.

A Secret Service representative reassured the public that Trump was “safe” following the altercation, as reported by The New York Times. The incident saw the demise of an alleged shooter and a bystander, casting a shadow over the rally.

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Images and videos rapidly disseminated across social media, depicting a resolute Trump with blood on his face, defiantly raising his fist. This episode unfolded against a backdrop of two weeks dominated by discussions of the frailty and missteps of his rival, sitting President Joe Biden.

Following the incident, the value of “Yes” shares in Polymarket’s prediction contract concerning Trump’s presidential victory escalated by ten cents, reaching 70 cents. This implies a 70% perceived likelihood of Trump’s triumph in the upcoming November election. Each share is set to pay out $1 if the prediction holds true, otherwise, it becomes worthless. These wagers are executed via a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and are settled in USDC, a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar.

Additionally, meme tokens associated with Trump, such as MAGA, experienced a significant surge post-incident. MAGA tokens increased by 34% within 24 hours, reaching $8.38, as per CoinGecko data. The satirical TREMP token saw an even more dramatic rise of 67%, hitting $0.6471. Conversely, BODEN, a parody token linked to Biden, dropped approximately 15% over the same period, settling at $0.0333115. These meme coins have emerged as an informal betting mechanism for the election, although, unlike prediction markets, PoliFi tokens do not yield any returns to holders based on electoral outcomes.

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In the aftermath of the incident, a slew of new meme coins, often of questionable taste, were launched on the Solana-based token creation platform Pump.fun. Examples include “Resurrection of Trump” (ticker: ROT) and “Hero Trump” (HERO), noted by Noah Kumin in the Mars Review of Books.

The broader cryptocurrency market reflected this surge, with the CoinDesk 20 index up by 3.31% over 24 hours. Bitcoin, the most established cryptocurrency by market capitalization, increased by 3.26%, trading at $59,735.17.

Trump has ardently endorsed cryptocurrency during his campaign and is slated to speak at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville this month. The Republican agenda also includes a pledge to halt the Biden administration’s regulatory clampdown on the crypto industry.

Polymarket, established four years ago by Shayne Coplan, has witnessed remarkable trading volumes in 2024, driven by heightened interest in political betting ahead of the U.S. election. The contract predicting the presidential winner has attracted $252 million in bets, a record for the platform and for crypto-based prediction markets at large.

Similarly, PredictIt, a traditional betting platform that deals in fiat currency, mirrored this trend. Trump shares rose from 59 cents pre-incident to 66 cents, stabilizing at 65 cents.

Prediction markets are often lauded for their reliability and accuracy in forecasting, as participants are financially incentivized to conduct thorough research and offer genuine predictions.