Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s legal predicament has captured widespread attention, with potential freedom dangling precariously as early as Wednesday, according to French prosecutors. Yet, on the betting platform Polymarket, speculators remain cautious, with wagers reflecting uncertainty over his release before October.

Currently, Durov has not been formally charged; rather, he is being detained amid an ongoing investigation linked to severe allegations—crimes allegedly orchestrated or disseminated via Telegram. The accusations span a grim spectrum, including money laundering, drug trafficking, child exploitation, and obstruction of law enforcement efforts.

Polymarket bettors, however, see a 72% likelihood that Durov will be freed before October. Shares backing this outcome are trading at 72 cents, promising a payout of $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, should the prediction materialize—otherwise, the shares hold no value.

Durov was apprehended on the evening of Saturday, August 24, 2024, at 8:00 PM local time upon his plane’s arrival at Le Bourget airport, a facility catering to general aviation just north of Paris. Under French law, he could remain detained until Wednesday, August 28, 2024, at 8:00 PM, though the current betting trends suggest skepticism about a swift release.

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A press release from the authorities hints that if investigators gather compelling evidence during Durov’s interrogation, his detention could be prolonged, or he may face formal charges, transitioning into pre-trial custody. This potential scenario likely contributes to the tempered optimism in the betting markets regarding his imminent release.

Amid this legal turmoil, Toncoin (TON), a cryptocurrency closely associated with Durov’s ventures, is witnessing market volatility. As per CoinDesk Indices, Toncoin is trading above $5.38, reflecting a 6.8% decline, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest digital assets, has dipped 1.87%.

The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Durov’s predicament deepens or if he regains his freedom, with the outcome likely influencing both legal and market landscapes.