In an intriguing forecast from prediction markets, President Joe Biden is poised to secure the popular vote, while former President Donald Trump is favored to triumph in the Electoral College, thereby clinching the presidency.

According to Polymarket, a leading platform for betting on political outcomes, shares indicating Biden’s victory in the popular vote are trading at 56 cents. This price suggests a 56% probability that Biden will secure the most individual votes. Each share is valued at $1 (in USDC stablecoin) if the prediction holds true, otherwise, it drops to zero.

Conversely, Trump’s chances of winning the popular vote stand at 36%, reflecting traders’ confidence in his performance in the overall vote count. This prediction market has seen $36 million in bets, making it Polymarket’s fourth most active market by volume.

The stakes are significantly higher in the market predicting the presidential winner. Here, Trump is leading with a 57% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Biden’s 35%. This market has attracted a record $182 million in bets, highlighting the high stakes and interest.

Despite Polymarket’s U.S. user restrictions due to regulatory agreements, its international traders have contributed significantly to these predictions. Meanwhile, PredictIt, a traditional U.S. election betting site, presents a slightly different scenario: Trump has a 52% chance of winning, while Biden trails at 47%. The volume on PredictIt is smaller, with $15.7 million in bets.

The Electoral College, conceived during the Constitutional Convention of 1787, was designed to balance the influence between populous and less populous states, ensuring smaller states have a voice in the election process. It consists of 538 electors, with a majority of 270 required to win the presidency. Each state’s number of electors equals its congressional representation: one for each House member (proportional to the state’s population) and two Senators.

Critics argue this system is undemocratic, while proponents claim it protects minority rights against majority tyranny. Should the Polymarket predictions come true, and Trump wins the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote, it is likely to reignite debates and protests similar to those seen after his 2016 victory.

Crypto Donations and Prediction Markets

Nearly two weeks after reports suggested President Biden might accept cryptocurrency donations, the president’s campaign remains silent on the matter, to the dismay of Polymarket traders who wagered on this outcome.

Trump’s apparent embrace of cryptocurrency earlier this year led many to speculate that Biden might follow suit. Initially, traders were optimistic, with prices peaking at 60% likelihood of Biden accepting crypto donations. However, this optimism has waned, with the market now valuing the likelihood at 19%.

The contract titled “Biden accepts crypto donations by Friday?” launched on June 12 and resolved to “no” on June 21 as the campaign made no announcements. Despite this, speculation continues about a potential future announcement, underscoring the inherent risks in prediction markets where bets may be directionally accurate but fail due to timing constraints.

Barron Trump and the DJT Token Controversy

A Polymarket contract addressing the involvement of Donald Trump’s son, Barron, in the creation of the Solana-based DJT token recently concluded with a “no” verdict, though this decision has faced multiple disputes.

The DJT token, which drew significant attention within the crypto community, was rumored to have Barron Trump’s involvement, largely based on statements by Martin “Pharma Bro” Shkreli. Shkreli, who served prison time for securities fraud, claimed he co-created the token with Barron, following a high-stakes bet with prominent crypto traders.

Despite the lack of public confirmation from the Trump campaign or Barron himself, proponents of Barron’s involvement relied on Shkreli’s assertions. This controversy highlights the volatile nature of prediction markets and the complexities involved in verifying information in the digital age.

These developments illustrate the dynamic interplay between politics and emerging financial instruments, with prediction markets offering a unique lens through which to view potential election outcomes and related controversies.