In the week following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal as the Democratic party candidate, Kamala Harris, his running mate, has seen a substantial surge in her odds of securing the White House. The probability has leapt from 18% to 38%, driven largely by individual, smaller wagers flooding the market.

Conversely, those betting on Trump demonstrate greater conviction. The top five holders of the ‘Yes’ position for Trump collectively possess 9.1 million shares, promising a pot of $9.1 million should Trump emerge victorious. In comparison, the top five holders of the ‘Yes’ position for Harris hold a combined 4.7 million shares.

Overall, a staggering $423 million has been wagered on the outcome of the Presidential race on Polymarket.

Notably, the largest holder of the ‘Yes’ bet on Trump is simultaneously the biggest holder of the ‘No’ bet on Harris.

As the November election approaches, the betting market is expected to intensify. Within the crypto community, there’s a growing perception that supporting Harris equates to opposing the digital asset industry, while Democrats seek ways to align with the crypto sector.

Additionally, leverage is set to be introduced to Polymarket, potentially enabling traders to take on larger positions for greater rewards. Although trading with leverage for higher returns is already available outside the betting market, as evidenced by PoliFi tokens, the waning interest in this asset class raises questions about sustained market engagement.

Mainland China and Bitcoin: A Complex Relationship

China’s previous involvement in the digital currency sector significantly contributed to Bitcoin’s growth, with early exchanges like BTC China and Binance originating there. However, the relationship remains complicated.

While crypto exchanges are banned in Mainland China, and financial institutions are barred from interacting with virtual currencies, owning and trading crypto peer-to-peer is permitted. There’s speculation that Mainland China might lift the crypto ban, allowing exchanges to reestablish operations and enabling investors to engage with Hong Kong-listed crypto ETFs.

Despite this, Beijing’s stringent capital controls aimed at maintaining Yuan stability pose a significant hurdle. Lifting the ban could enable traders to circumvent these controls, potentially destabilizing the Yuan.

Stakeholders like Justin Sun have advocated for progress in this area, but Mainland China’s full embrace of Bitcoin remains intricate. Polymarket bettors seem to grasp this complexity, assigning only a 16% probability of the ban being lifted.

Coinbase Trading Volume Faces Potential Decline

At the beginning of the year, the crypto market was flourishing, reflected in Coinbase’s soaring transaction volume. It seemed poised to reach its highest activity since June 2022. However, as the year progressed, trading volumes receded as retail enthusiasm over ETF approvals diminished.

Kalshi prediction markets forecast that Coinbase’s volume will drop to $164.8 billion for the quarter, a significant decrease from the previous quarter’s $312 billion. Bettors are giving it only a 25% chance of exceeding $250 billion.

This anticipated drop isn’t yet reflected in Coinbase’s stock (COIN), which has seen a 4% increase over the past month but a 6% decline in the last trading week. Traders are likely to reassess their positions as they approach Coinbase’s earnings announcement on Aug. 1.