In the swirling maelstrom of political betting, Polymarket users have staked nearly $80 million on President Joe Biden’s potential as the Democratic nominee, excluding specific presidential bets. This significant sum spans six distinct wagers, reflecting the high stakes and fervor surrounding Biden’s political future.

The most substantial pool revolved around selecting the Democratic nominee, with the party’s formal nomination process commencing on August 19 at its convention. However, Biden’s resignation has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the proceedings. A total of $51.5 million has been directly wagered on Biden’s candidacy or opposition within a $205 million betting pool.

By the end of June, the market priced Biden’s chances of being the nominee at 90 cents, equating to a 90% probability. Despite heightened volatility in early July, driven by increasing calls for Biden’s withdrawal countered by his firm declaration to remain in the race, the market rebounded to 80 cents as of July 17.

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A notable bettor, AnonBidenBull, suffered a staggering loss of nearly $1.8 million on this contract, with total losses exceeding $2 million across related Biden bets. Concurrently, markets speculating on Biden’s potential resignation accumulated a total of $27.5 million in wagers. The largest of these, with $21 million at stake, questioned whether Biden would exit the race. Additional markets speculated on the specific date of his resignation or his presence on particular state ballots.

One prominent user, ‘therealbatman,’ lost approximately $647,500 on a specific resignation bet and around $1 million overall on Biden-related wagers, having anticipated Biden’s victory in the popular vote.

On Twitter, Polymarket highlighted that traders significantly favored Biden’s dropout in the days leading up to the announcement, with the market surging to 100% just before media coverage. Despite initial claims of a lead time of hours, a community note on X clarified it was only minutes due to time zone discrepancies.

Overall, this trader has so far realized a profit of $691,000 on positions valued at $1.7 million.