Mt. Gox redemption impact: bitcoin cash faces more pressure than bitcoin

Mt. Gox Redemption Impact: Bitcoin Cash Faces More Pressure Than Bitcoin

Last Updated: July 4, 2024By

Concerns that the liquidation from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate will negatively impact Bitcoin (BTC) are unfounded. However, the scenario could spell trouble for Bitcoin Cash (BCH), as articulated by Presto Labs’ Head of Research. Bitcoin’s price has slipped below $60,000, with over $200 million in liquidations as the trading day commenced in Asia.

In addition to approximately $9.5 billion in BTC slated for distribution to former Mt. Gox customers, the defunct exchange will also return 143,000 BCH, valued at around $73 million. CoinGecko data reveals that Bitcoin Cash has a daily trading volume of $308.8 million, making this redemption amount roughly 24% of its daily trading volume.

“Our analysis indicates that the selling pressure on BCH will be four times greater than that on BTC: 24% of BCH’s daily trading volume compared to 6% for BTC,” Presto Labs’ Peter Chung explained in a note, highlighting that BCH’s daily trading volume is merely one-fiftieth of BTC’s.

Chung noted that BTC is expected to face limited selling because those wishing to exit have already sold their claims on bankruptcy claim markets.

In the initial stages of FTX’s bankruptcy, many traders, skeptical about a swift bankruptcy resolution, sold their claims.

“Weak-handed creditors had ample opportunities to exit over the past decade due to aggressive bidding from claim funds. Therefore, we can reasonably assume that the current group of creditors comprises steadfast BTC bulls,” Chung stated.

Chung contends that traders are likely to treat the BCH as an airdrop and promptly sell it, given that Bitcoin Cash’s fork occurred three years after Mt. Gox’s bankruptcy.

“Creditors are indifferent to BCH’s significance,” he added.

A market-neutral strategy to capitalize on this view involves pairing long BTC perpetuals with short BCH perpetuals, though this approach carries funding rate risk, Chung suggested.

“Those aiming to secure a funding rate might consider alternative strategies, such as shorting term futures or borrowing BCH in the spot market,” he elaborated.

Currently, BCH is trading at $360, reflecting a 3.8% decline, according to CoinDesk Indices data.

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About the Author: Eunji Lim

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