The likelihood of President Joe Biden bowing out of the U.S. presidential race has surged to 68%, nearing an unprecedented 70%, following his recent Covid-19 diagnosis, as reflected in wagers on the cryptocurrency-fueled prediction market Polymarket.
In a revealing conversation with BET News aired yesterday, Biden hinted at reconsidering his campaign if faced with a significant health issue. “Is there anything that would prompt you, personally, to reevaluate your candidacy?” BET’s Ed Gordon probed.
“If a medical condition emerged, if doctors informed me of significant health concerns,” Biden responded.
Read more: Trump’s Meteoric Rise in Polymarket Forecasts Post-Pennsylvania Rally Incident
The probability of Biden’s withdrawal initially spiked after a contentious debate with Republican contender Donald Trump, leaping to 70% from a prior 36% due to widespread criticism of his debate performance.
Biden conceded the subpar performance, attributing it to fatigue from extensive travel.
Subsequently, a PR blitz reinforcing his candidacy and refutations from potential substitutes saw the “Yes” side of the drop-out bet plummet by 34 points to 36%.
Yet, this cycle persisted. A public appeal from long-standing Democratic advocate George Clooney for Biden’s resignation briefly pushed the “Yes” contract to 66% before stabilizing in the 30s. It spiked again during the Republican National Convention and the announcement of a favored running mate from Trump’s camp, further amplified by Biden’s Covid diagnosis.
Concurrently, the odds of Biden withdrawing before the Democratic convention in August, where his nomination would be confirmed, have also risen to 59%.
Polymarket’s national election forecast positions Trump at 64%, Biden at 12%, and Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, at 19%.