Contrary to the prevailing belief that Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price fluctuations are tightly linked to Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances in the U.S. presidential race, market data paints a different picture.

Since mid-June, when Trump met with Bitcoin miners, a narrative has circulated among crypto market pundits that ties his performance in betting markets to Bitcoin’s price movement. This narrative gained traction after a failed assassination attempt on Trump in July and the subsequent pressure on BTC as Democrat candidate Kamala Harris saw a resurgence in the betting markets.

However, an in-depth analysis by prime broker FalconX, examining the three-day changes in BTC’s price against the three-day shifts in Polymarket odds of Trump winning between June 1 and August 15, shows no clear trend or correlation between the two. The X-axis of the analysis illustrates the percentage fluctuations in BTC’s price over three days, while the Y-axis charts the corresponding changes in Trump’s victory odds.

Also, read – CleanSpark’s Bitcoin Mining Performance in July 2024: A Tale of Strategic Accumulation and Expansion

During the period from June 29 to July 29—when Trump’s probability of clinching the presidency spiked—the data, represented by red dots, shows a dispersed pattern, indicating no direct correlation between shifts in Republican odds and BTC’s price movements. The blue and grey dots, symbolizing the Democrat momentum and the rest of the analysis period, respectively, also show a similar lack of connection.

“Throughout the entire period from June 1 to August 15, 2024, we observed no significant relationship between election odds and BTC prices. This could be due to numerous factors influencing the market, such as U.S. monetary policy trajectory, concerns over potential supply overhangs, and other variables we’ve previously highlighted,” stated David Lawant, head of research at FalconX.

Indeed, factors like aggressive selling by the German state of Saxony and fears of a supply flood from Mt. Gox’s creditors have reportedly capped BTC’s potential upside since June, overshadowing the impact of changes in Republican election odds.

Nonetheless, as Harris gains ground in the crypto space, the upcoming election could still emerge as a significant driver of BTC prices. “A lot can change before November 5. It will be intriguing to observe if prediction market data begins to reflect election news as a key—or even dominant—force behind BTC price movements,” Lawant added.

This analysis underscores that while political events can influence markets, the relationship between such events and asset prices is often more complex than it appears at first glance.