As the cryptocurrency community pivots from political spectacles, such as Donald Trump’s appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin conference, it marks a significant milestone on July 29: the 100th day since Bitcoin’s blockchain executed its fourth mining reward halving.

According to fresh analysis from ETC Group, the bullish momentum driven by the halving-induced deceleration in Bitcoin’s (BTC) supply growth typically starts to manifest around this time. Bitcoin’s halving event, encoded into its blockchain, occurs every four years or after 210,000 blocks have been mined, cutting the miners’ rewards by half. This systematic reduction aims to regulate Bitcoin’s supply, ensuring its scarcity in contrast to fiat currencies, which face perpetual inflation. Bitcoin’s supply is finite, capped at 21 million, with halving events moderating the speed at which this limit is approached.

The inaugural halving in 2012 decreased the per-block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Subsequent halvings have further reduced this reward, culminating in the most recent halving on April 20, which sliced the reward to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, these halvings have preceded substantial price rallies, with notable gains often materializing post the initial 100 days.

“Today marks exactly 100 days following the Bitcoin Halving on April 20. The market’s short memory often overlooks this, but the supply reduction effects from the halving should start to become apparent now,” stated Andre Dragosch, ETC Group’s head of research, on X (formerly Twitter).

Dragosch’s insights are drawn from an analysis of Bitcoin’s performance surrounding the previous three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The research indicates that the mean excess performance— the differential in performance X days after versus X days before the halving—becomes significantly pronounced 100 days post-halving, with “T-values” surpassing 2%.

The T-value, a critical metric in hypothesis testing, measures how far the sample mean deviates from the population mean, normalized by the sample’s variability. “The pivotal insight is that 100 days after the Halving, the performance variance becomes statistically significant (T-value > 2) and continues to gain significance up until approximately 400 days post-Halving,” Dragosch elucidated to CoinDesk.