For the time being, the answer to the first question is ‘NO’. Whereas fortress gold has increased 2.3 percent in the last week as Western concerns about the Russian invasion have become louder, bitcoin has dropped 3%. That was worse than the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) index’s 0.9 percent drop.

“I don’t see any evidence of bitcoin being a haven,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne-based brokerage Pepperstone. “The Ukraine situation with Russia is a really hard one to price, so in that situation, you just buy crude futures.” However, it’s too soon to reject the idea put up by many bitcoin proponents that the cryptocurrency, which is still in its infancy, is destined to be a type of digital gold that will hold its value when riskier assets like equities fall in value.

While bitcoin has dropped to approximately $42,000 in recent days, it hasn’t given up all of its gains from the lows of $32,950 on January 24. Some investors also point to how quiet trade has been during heightened geopolitical tension, with Russia massing over 100,000 troops near Ukraine but dismissing Western invasion predictions as “hysteria.”

According to BuyBitcoinWorldwide’s volatility indicator, Bitcoin’s average 30-day volatility has dropped to 3.48 percent, down from a high of 4.56 percent in 2021. Coinglass’ bitcoin Fear & Greed index, which gauges market mood based on a scale of 0 to 100, is now at 46, much above the jittery 11-33 area where it had been trading since late November.

“But not quite yet,” said Matthew Dibb, chief operating officer of Singapore-based crypto platform Stack Funds. He is optimistic about crypto as an alternative asset and a hedge against global events in the long run. “We are beginning to see some decorrelation between bitcoin and the equities market, which is very nice,” he added. “But while we’re seeing some traditional safe havens pop off with the Ukraine and Russia situation, we haven’t seen that in crypto.”

Crypto and Russia: The Choice to Regulate and not Ban

Meanwhile, a new rule for crypto assets anticipated to be introduced this week in Russia might significantly impact the worldwide landscape. Russia’s relevance for cryptocurrencies has grown over the last year. After a ban on bitcoin mining in China, the world’s foremost center for the activity, miners scrambled for alternatives. The Russian restrictions, on the other hand, are yet unknown.

Authorities said last week that they were working on laws to enable cryptocurrency purchases, but only through locally registered and approved businesses. After the central bank recommended outlawing the usage and mining of cryptocurrencies in January, industry players hailed this as a positive move.

On Monday, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev said it was critical to track money flows and crypto transactions, including identifying individuals. Moiseev also told reporters that the only legal entrance point for crypto into the Russian market would be banks and exchanges, compelled to follow anti-money laundering legislation. If incorporated in the new law, this might detract from one of the main selling advantages of cryptocurrencies: their anonymity.