Bitcoin bulls may find optimism in the coming weeks as potential seasonal patterns are expected to invigorate the prices of the leading cryptocurrency following months of stagnation and decline.
Since April, BTC has oscillated between $59,000 and $74,000, burdened by substantial sales, looming selling pressures, outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and pervasive negative sentiment among retail traders.
However, the historically favorable month of July could alter this trajectory. On the month’s inaugural day, U.S.-listed ETFs saw nearly $130 million in inflows—their highest since early June—following over $900 million in outflows throughout June.
“Bitcoin has a median return of 9.6% in July and tends to rebound strongly, especially after a negative June (-9.85%),” noted Singapore-based QCP Capital in a Monday Telegram broadcast.
Read more: Bitcoin and Crypto Conclude a Lackluster Quarter, Analyst Predicts Further Decline
“Our options desk observed flows positioning for an upward movement last Friday into the month’s end, likely in anticipation of the ETH spot ETF launch. Numerous indicators suggest a bullish July,” QCP elaborated.
Over the past decade, bitcoin has averaged a gain of more than 11% in July, with seven out of ten years showing positive returns, according to historical data.
Crypto fund Matrixport highlighted in a 2023 report that July returns from 2019 to 2022 were approximately 27%, 20%, and 24%, respectively.
Seasonality refers to the propensity of assets to undergo regular, predictable changes that recur annually. While this might appear random, plausible explanations include profit-taking around tax season in April and May, which leads to drawdowns, and the generally bullish “Santa Claus” rally in December, indicating heightened demand.