United States President Joe Biden’s prospects for re-election have dramatically dwindled, dropping to as low as 9% on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket. Speculators are pondering whether Vice President Kamala Harris will step in as the Democratic candidate instead.
Since then, Biden’s odds have seen a minor rebound, currently hovering at 10% in Polymarket’s $226 million “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market. In contrast, former President and Republican contender Donald Trump leads with a commanding 61%, while Harris trails behind with 19%.
On another predictions platform, PredictIt, Biden’s share prices have similarly declined from $0.25 to $0.20. Harris now stands as the leading Democratic candidate. However, Trump maintains the highest valued “Yes” shares at $0.58.
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This slump in Biden’s re-election odds coincides with rising apprehensions from media and various commentators regarding his capability to serve a second term. According to CNN, President Biden expressed concerns to several U.S. governors during a White House meeting on July 3, humorously remarking, “I’m fine — I don’t know about my brain, though.” The report also mentioned Biden’s decision to stop scheduling events after 8 pm to ensure more rest.
Further compounding the situation, Biden mistakenly referred to himself as the “first black woman” to serve as U.S. President during a radio interview the following day—a gaffe that quickly circulated on social media.
Polymarket now indicates a 66% likelihood that Biden will withdraw from the race before the November 4 election, with Harris emerging as the probable Democratic candidate to challenge Trump. Despite mounting pressure, Biden has reiterated his commitment to remain in the race. “I’m not going anywhere,” he declared during an Independence Day speech at the White House on July 4.
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Neither Biden nor Trump addressed Bitcoin or digital asset-related topics during the first Presidential Debate on June 27. The two candidates are scheduled for a final showdown in the Presidential Debate on September 10.